OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.
Identifieur interne : 002A69 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002A68; suivant : 002A70OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.
Auteurs : J-P Gattuso [France] ; A. Magnan [France] ; R. Billé ; W W L. Cheung [Canada] ; E L Howes [Allemagne] ; F. Joos [Suisse] ; D. Allemand [France] ; L. Bopp [États-Unis] ; S R Cooley [États-Unis] ; C M Eakin [Australie] ; O. Hoegh-Guldberg [États-Unis] ; R P Kelly [Royaume-Uni] ; H-O Pörtner [Allemagne] ; A D Rogers [Royaume-Uni] ; J M Baxter [Suisse] ; D. Laffoley ; D. Osborn [États-Unis] ; A. Rankovic [Canada] ; J. Rochette [France] ; U R Sumaila [Royaume-Uni] ; S. Treyer [France] ; C. Turley [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 1095-9203 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical : Carbon Dioxide.
- Animals, Aquaculture, Aquatic Organisms, Ecosystem, Global Warming, Greenhouse Effect, Health, Humans, Oceans and Seas, Risk, Travel.
Abstract
The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.
DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4722
PubMed: 26138982
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Australie, Canada, France, Royaume-Uni, Suisse, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Canton de Berne, District de Columbia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oxfordshire, Washington (État), Écosse, Île-de-France
- Berne, Cambridge (Massachusetts), Gif-sur-Yvette, Oxford, Paris, Seattle
- Université Harvard, Université d'Oxford, Université de Berne, Université de Washington
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Cheung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Howes, E L" sort="Howes, E L" uniqKey="Howes E" first="E L" last="Howes">E L Howes</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Joos, F" sort="Joos, F" uniqKey="Joos F" first="F" last="Joos">F. Joos</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country><wicri:regionArea>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Berne</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Berne</settlement><region nuts="3" type="region">Canton de Berne</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Allemand, D" sort="Allemand, D" uniqKey="Allemand D" first="D" last="Allemand">D. Allemand</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Centre Scientifique de Monaco, 8 Quai Antoine Ier, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, CNRS-Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre Scientifique de Monaco, 8 Quai Antoine Ier, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, CNRS-Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Gif-sur-Yvette</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bopp, L" sort="Bopp, L" uniqKey="Bopp L" first="L" last="Bopp">L. Bopp</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th Street NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th Street NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">District de Columbia</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cooley, S R" sort="Cooley, S R" uniqKey="Cooley S" first="S R" last="Cooley">S R Cooley</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eakin, C M" sort="Eakin, C M" uniqKey="Eakin C" first="C M" last="Eakin">C M Eakin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Global Change Institute and Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Building 20, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Global Change Institute and Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Building 20, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>4072 Queensland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hoegh Guldberg, O" sort="Hoegh Guldberg, O" uniqKey="Hoegh Guldberg O" first="O" last="Hoegh-Guldberg">O. Hoegh-Guldberg</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kelly, R P" sort="Kelly, R P" uniqKey="Kelly R" first="R P" last="Kelly">R P Kelly</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Oxfordshire</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Portner, H O" sort="Portner, H O" uniqKey="Portner H" first="H-O" last="Pörtner">H-O Pörtner</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rogers, A D" sort="Rogers, A D" uniqKey="Rogers A" first="A D" last="Rogers">A D Rogers</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Scottish Natural Heritage, 231 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, Scotland.</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Scottish Natural Heritage, 231 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baxter, J M" sort="Baxter, J M" uniqKey="Baxter J" first="J M" last="Baxter">J M Baxter</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country><wicri:regionArea>IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, CH-1196 Gland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>CH-1196 Gland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laffoley, D" sort="Laffoley, D" uniqKey="Laffoley D" first="D" last="Laffoley">D. Laffoley</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, 4a Quai Antoine 1er, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Monaco</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Osborn, D" sort="Osborn, D" uniqKey="Osborn D" first="D" last="Osborn">D. Osborn</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Program on Science, Technology, and Society, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Program on Science, Technology, and Society, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region><settlement type="city">Cambridge (Massachusetts)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Harvard</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rankovic, A" sort="Rankovic, A" uniqKey="Rankovic A" first="A" last="Rankovic">A. Rankovic</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rochette, J" sort="Rochette, J" uniqKey="Rochette J" first="J" last="Rochette">J. Rochette</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sumaila, U R" sort="Sumaila, U R" uniqKey="Sumaila U" first="U R" last="Sumaila">U R Sumaila</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Treyer, S" sort="Treyer, S" uniqKey="Treyer S" first="S" last="Treyer">S. Treyer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Turley, C" sort="Turley, C" uniqKey="Turley C" first="C" last="Turley">C. Turley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:26138982</idno><idno type="pmid">26138982</idno><idno type="doi">10.1126/science.aac4722</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">002B97</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">002B97</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">002B24</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">002B24</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">002B24</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">002B24</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">002800</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">002800</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">002800</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">002A69</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">002A69</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">002A69</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.</title><author><name sortKey="Gattuso, J P" sort="Gattuso, J P" uniqKey="Gattuso J" first="J-P" last="Gattuso">J-P Gattuso</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, CNRS-Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Sorbonne Universités, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Univ Paris 06, Observatoire Océanologique, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. gattuso@obs-vlfr.fr.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, CNRS-Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Sorbonne Universités, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Univ Paris 06, Observatoire Océanologique, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Magnan, A" sort="Magnan, A" uniqKey="Magnan A" first="A" last="Magnan">A. Magnan</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bille, R" sort="Bille, R" uniqKey="Bille R" first="R" last="Billé">R. Billé</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Secretariat of the Pacific Community, B.P. D5, 98848 Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">New Caledonia</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cheung, W W L" sort="Cheung, W W L" uniqKey="Cheung W" first="W W L" last="Cheung">W W L. Cheung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Howes, E L" sort="Howes, E L" uniqKey="Howes E" first="E L" last="Howes">E L Howes</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Joos, F" sort="Joos, F" uniqKey="Joos F" first="F" last="Joos">F. Joos</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country><wicri:regionArea>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Berne</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Berne</settlement><region nuts="3" type="region">Canton de Berne</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Allemand, D" sort="Allemand, D" uniqKey="Allemand D" first="D" last="Allemand">D. Allemand</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Centre Scientifique de Monaco, 8 Quai Antoine Ier, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, CNRS-Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre Scientifique de Monaco, 8 Quai Antoine Ier, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, CNRS-Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Gif-sur-Yvette</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bopp, L" sort="Bopp, L" uniqKey="Bopp L" first="L" last="Bopp">L. Bopp</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th Street NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th Street NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">District de Columbia</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cooley, S R" sort="Cooley, S R" uniqKey="Cooley S" first="S R" last="Cooley">S R Cooley</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eakin, C M" sort="Eakin, C M" uniqKey="Eakin C" first="C M" last="Eakin">C M Eakin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Global Change Institute and Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Building 20, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Global Change Institute and Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Building 20, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>4072 Queensland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hoegh Guldberg, O" sort="Hoegh Guldberg, O" uniqKey="Hoegh Guldberg O" first="O" last="Hoegh-Guldberg">O. Hoegh-Guldberg</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kelly, R P" sort="Kelly, R P" uniqKey="Kelly R" first="R P" last="Kelly">R P Kelly</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Oxfordshire</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Portner, H O" sort="Portner, H O" uniqKey="Portner H" first="H-O" last="Pörtner">H-O Pörtner</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>27570, Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Bremenrhaven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rogers, A D" sort="Rogers, A D" uniqKey="Rogers A" first="A D" last="Rogers">A D Rogers</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Scottish Natural Heritage, 231 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, Scotland.</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Scottish Natural Heritage, 231 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baxter, J M" sort="Baxter, J M" uniqKey="Baxter J" first="J M" last="Baxter">J M Baxter</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country><wicri:regionArea>IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, CH-1196 Gland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>CH-1196 Gland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laffoley, D" sort="Laffoley, D" uniqKey="Laffoley D" first="D" last="Laffoley">D. Laffoley</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, 4a Quai Antoine 1er, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Monaco</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Osborn, D" sort="Osborn, D" uniqKey="Osborn D" first="D" last="Osborn">D. Osborn</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Program on Science, Technology, and Society, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Program on Science, Technology, and Society, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region><settlement type="city">Cambridge (Massachusetts)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Harvard</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rankovic, A" sort="Rankovic, A" uniqKey="Rankovic A" first="A" last="Rankovic">A. Rankovic</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>BC V6T 1Z4</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rochette, J" sort="Rochette, J" uniqKey="Rochette J" first="J" last="Rochette">J. Rochette</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sumaila, U R" sort="Sumaila, U R" uniqKey="Sumaila U" first="U R" last="Sumaila">U R Sumaila</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Treyer, S" sort="Treyer, S" uniqKey="Treyer S" first="S" last="Treyer">S. Treyer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>75007 Paris</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Turley, C" sort="Turley, C" uniqKey="Turley C" first="C" last="Turley">C. Turley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Plymouth PL1 3DH</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Aquaculture</term><term>Aquatic Organisms</term><term>Carbon Dioxide</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Global Warming</term><term>Greenhouse Effect</term><term>Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Oceans and Seas</term><term>Risk</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Aquaculture</term><term>Dioxyde de carbone</term><term>Effet de serre</term><term>Humains</term><term>Océans et mers</term><term>Organismes aquatiques</term><term>Risque</term><term>Réchauffement de la planète</term><term>Santé</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Écosystème</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" xml:lang="en"><term>Carbon Dioxide</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Aquaculture</term><term>Aquatic Organisms</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Global Warming</term><term>Greenhouse Effect</term><term>Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Oceans and Seas</term><term>Risk</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Aquaculture</term><term>Dioxyde de carbone</term><term>Effet de serre</term><term>Humains</term><term>Océans et mers</term><term>Organismes aquatiques</term><term>Risque</term><term>Réchauffement de la planète</term><term>Santé</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Écosystème</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Australie</li><li>Canada</li><li>France</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>Suisse</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Canton de Berne</li><li>District de Columbia</li><li>Maryland</li><li>Massachusetts</li><li>Oxfordshire</li><li>Washington (État)</li><li>Écosse</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Berne</li><li>Cambridge (Massachusetts)</li><li>Gif-sur-Yvette</li><li>Oxford</li><li>Paris</li><li>Seattle</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Harvard</li><li>Université d'Oxford</li><li>Université de Berne</li><li>Université de Washington</li></orgName></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Bille, R" sort="Bille, R" uniqKey="Bille R" first="R" last="Billé">R. Billé</name><name sortKey="Laffoley, D" sort="Laffoley, D" uniqKey="Laffoley D" first="D" last="Laffoley">D. Laffoley</name></noCountry><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Gattuso, J P" sort="Gattuso, J P" uniqKey="Gattuso J" first="J-P" last="Gattuso">J-P Gattuso</name></region><name sortKey="Allemand, D" sort="Allemand, D" uniqKey="Allemand D" first="D" last="Allemand">D. Allemand</name><name sortKey="Magnan, A" sort="Magnan, A" uniqKey="Magnan A" first="A" last="Magnan">A. Magnan</name><name sortKey="Rochette, J" sort="Rochette, J" uniqKey="Rochette J" first="J" last="Rochette">J. Rochette</name><name sortKey="Treyer, S" sort="Treyer, S" uniqKey="Treyer S" first="S" last="Treyer">S. Treyer</name></country><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Cheung, W W L" sort="Cheung, W W L" uniqKey="Cheung W" first="W W L" last="Cheung">W W L. Cheung</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Rankovic, A" sort="Rankovic, A" uniqKey="Rankovic A" first="A" last="Rankovic">A. Rankovic</name></country><country name="Allemagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Howes, E L" sort="Howes, E L" uniqKey="Howes E" first="E L" last="Howes">E L Howes</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Portner, H O" sort="Portner, H O" uniqKey="Portner H" first="H-O" last="Pörtner">H-O Pörtner</name></country><country name="Suisse"><region name="Canton de Berne"><name sortKey="Joos, F" sort="Joos, F" uniqKey="Joos F" first="F" last="Joos">F. Joos</name></region><name sortKey="Baxter, J M" sort="Baxter, J M" uniqKey="Baxter J" first="J M" last="Baxter">J M Baxter</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="District de Columbia"><name sortKey="Bopp, L" sort="Bopp, L" uniqKey="Bopp L" first="L" last="Bopp">L. Bopp</name></region><name sortKey="Cooley, S R" sort="Cooley, S R" uniqKey="Cooley S" first="S R" last="Cooley">S R Cooley</name><name sortKey="Hoegh Guldberg, O" sort="Hoegh Guldberg, O" uniqKey="Hoegh Guldberg O" first="O" last="Hoegh-Guldberg">O. Hoegh-Guldberg</name><name sortKey="Osborn, D" sort="Osborn, D" uniqKey="Osborn D" first="D" last="Osborn">D. Osborn</name></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Eakin, C M" sort="Eakin, C M" uniqKey="Eakin C" first="C M" last="Eakin">C M Eakin</name></noRegion></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Kelly, R P" sort="Kelly, R P" uniqKey="Kelly R" first="R P" last="Kelly">R P Kelly</name></region><name sortKey="Rogers, A D" sort="Rogers, A D" uniqKey="Rogers A" first="A D" last="Rogers">A D Rogers</name><name sortKey="Sumaila, U R" sort="Sumaila, U R" uniqKey="Sumaila U" first="U R" last="Sumaila">U R Sumaila</name><name sortKey="Turley, C" sort="Turley, C" uniqKey="Turley C" first="C" last="Turley">C. Turley</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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